Tracking PA’s ‘Blue Wave’ in the House

Tracking PA's 'Blue Wave' in the House

As role of a series on the upcoming election, an urban demographer looks at how the state house races are likely to play out

Aug. 15, 2018

November sixth are the midterm elections, the outset national election since Donald Trump became president. Nationally, Democrats are expected to make gains. The give-and-take has largely centered on whether the "Blue Wave" volition be large enough to assist Democrats take control of the U.S. House or even the Senate.

Pennsylvania has important state and local races too. Voters hither will be choosing a Governor and Senator, in two elections where Autonomous incumbents are well-positioned. How virtually the downwardly-ballot races? Could the Pennsylvania Business firm of Representatives be in play?

The Composition of the PA House

The Pennsylvania House has been solidly Republican since 2010, and has had a Republican bulk for 20 out of the concluding 24 years. In 2016, 121 Republicans won versus 82 Democrats. Of those races, 51 were uncontested Republicans, and 47 uncontested Democrats.

In order to take back the house, Democrats need to pick up 20 seats. In a typical year, that would exist impossible. But this twelvemonth? Nationally, in Special Elections for congress, Democrats accept seen an boilerplate sixteen point increase over their baseline. This would imply that a race that went 58-42 to Republicans would be in play. If every land house district swung towards Democrats by 16 points from 2016, Democrats would option upwardly 17 seats. And that's not counting the races that Democrats failed to contest in 2016.

Philadelphia is vitally important in this motion picture. Some 13 of those Republican districts within xvi points are in Philadelphia or its four-county suburbs.

A surge of that size is probably non going to happen, just it shows what's in play. These hyper-local races probably benefit from very potent incumbency, and information technology'south unclear how national signals volition translate.

Pennsylvania has 19 districts with a Republican representative that was won by Hillary Clinton. Stunningly, every single one of them is in Philadelphia or its suburbs. And in 2 of those Democrats didn't even field a candidate. If Donald Trump has nationalized the election, and energizes Democratic voters, Democrats could capitalize on this anti-Trump sentiment.

Plenty of people are trying to read the tea leaves in May'southward Principal turnout. Could surges in Democratic Primary turnout presage victories in November? I await at turnout below. This word comes with a strong caveat: information technology's unclear how well chief turnout translates to general election results, and that is even further complicated by the fact that turnout is driven by where races are competitive, and we had many (many) more competitive primaries than in 2014, the last midterm. That being said, below is a plot of main turnout changes, from 2014 – 2018, broken down by 2022 election results.

District by District

Finally, allow's look at the raw data for the districts. To make this manageable, I've broken them into chunks based on whether the primaries were contested, party of the Representative, and 2022 Presidential results. Beneath, I nowadays each district'south 2022 results (every bit the two-party vote, meaning excluding third parties and non-votes), and turnout in the 2014 and 2022 primaries.

First, the 39 districts that the Democrats didn't contest in 2022 but now have a candidate, including ii that Hillary won.

Next, the other 17 districts that voted for Republican representatives only likewise for Hillary in 2016. They're all in Philadelphia and its suburbs.

Next, the 53 districts where a Republican representative won a contested race and Trump did too. Iv of these were within 16 points of a Autonomous victory in 2016.

Where were the districts that were extra Trumpy? Here are the 17 that voted for a Democratic Representative, but also for Trump (including 8 that the Republicans didn't field a candidate).

Next, the 65 districts where Democrats won both the State Firm and Presidential race.

Finally, the 12 districts that Democrats didn't contest in 2022 and still aren't contesting in 2018.

Coming Up Next

What practice we make of all this? Unfortunately, it'south unclear how this election will intermission. Are the districts that voted for a Republican Representative simply Clinton in 2022 more likely to swing towards the Democrats, given the outset ii years of Trump's presidency, or volition they continue to support the incumbent, specially with Trump not on the election? Will the districts with main surges testify up? How important is the fact that Democrats accept fielded candidates in 39 districts that went uncontested in 2016, and can that shift turnout there in ways that change the Governor's race?

As the summer comes to a close, I'll be looking at a few of these Philadelphia-expanse races, and trying to understand the mural for November.

Photo via Wikimedia Commons CC-BY-ii.0

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Source: https://thephiladelphiacitizen.org/tracking-pas-blue-wave-in-the-house/

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